Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 21.546758 23.416616 25.435817 27.788989 30.469567 33.444159 37.017188
2025-11-02 18.480579 21.004541 23.917013 27.567181 32.078754 37.553516 44.829809
2025-11-09 16.426537 19.325413 22.849359 27.536176 33.746763 41.912121 53.859167
2025-11-16 14.847270 17.948490 21.878761 27.368815 35.090971 45.998317 63.474019
2025-11-23 13.619167 16.833424 21.049852 27.190442 36.291684 50.015493 74.005586
2025-11-30 12.622952 15.894462 20.312952 26.984171 37.342889 53.932253 85.480933
2025-12-07 11.854191 15.174209 19.776790 26.958722 38.607213 58.381584 99.346587
2025-12-14 11.164757 14.494027 19.214376 26.795977 39.583045 62.493117 114.062710
2025-12-21 10.848202 14.307827 19.339875 27.696687 42.459058 70.712529 141.501521
2025-12-28 10.287281 13.717956 18.797842 27.436918 43.220232 74.961101 161.526295
2026-01-04 9.841771 13.264400 18.421449 27.400167 44.369470 80.290324 187.718897
2026-01-11 9.508597 12.954447 18.239592 27.667533 46.133810 87.459392 224.831921
2026-01-18 9.087078 12.491575 17.791349 27.441524 46.933464 92.758024 260.958988
2026-01-25 8.699213 12.058549 17.361156 27.206013 47.688582 98.245774 304.079131
2026-02-01 8.380812 11.715702 17.054651 27.167274 48.868727 105.315353 364.033403
2026-02-08 8.066267 11.360425 16.700760 26.999247 49.732700 111.840194 432.345136
2026-02-15 7.775625 11.027343 16.361055 26.822520 50.549170 118.578571 516.283594
2026-02-22 7.503133 10.709230 16.025552 26.619410 51.271024 125.355839 618.707391
2026-03-01 7.278151 10.457519 15.789685 26.594059 52.435321 134.213032 769.910573
2026-03-08 7.048881 10.187122 15.502907 26.434289 53.230867 142.164722 949.479571
2026-03-15 6.982653 10.186203 15.700562 27.317293 56.984554 163.861622 1476.820684
2026-03-22 6.764733 9.916608 15.387983 27.062589 57.543674 172.498652 1885.860190
2026-03-29 6.588910 9.711364 15.182838 27.026538 58.735621 184.892626 2610.123378